(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused as of Tuesday morning, and scientists expect the next episode of lava activity to begin at any moment. 

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported Monday night that if prior patterns of inflation hold, Episode 18 is likely to start between now and late Wednesday. 

Overnight, both the north and south vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater were degassing and displaying a strong glow. 

USGS webcam view of the volcanic vents at the summit of Kīlauea

The USGS HVO posted this analysis on Monday:

The current eruption has been characterized by episodic fountaining not seen in any of the other Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions since 2020. Fountains and lava flows have erupted from two vents that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each of the previous 16 fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week and has been accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate change from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes.

USGS: “This reference map depicts the Kīlauea summit eruption within Halema‘uma‘u crater that began on December 23, 2024. As of this posting on April 9, the eruption has had seventeen episodes, with the most recent concluding earlier this morning. However, most of the map data included here were collected during a Hawaiian Volcano Observatory helicopter overflight on April 2, immediately following episode 16; for this reason, the provided statistics only reflect the first sixteen episodes of the eruption. Additionally, the collected data were insufficient to calculate the total lava volume for the eruption at that time.”

Analysis of inflationary tilt patterns prior to the onset of each fountaining episode allows a time window of probability for the onset of new episodes to be estimated. These are calculated using both minimum inflation necessary to start a new eruption and the rate of inflation fit to data derived from past eruptive episodes. The onset of episode 17 occurred earlier than forecasted, as the fountaining began prior to the tilt rebounding to the expected threshold that had been previously associated with episode onsets. If the eruption returns to pre-episode 17 inflation behavior, data suggest episode 18 is likely to start as early as today or as late as Wednesday of this week, within the 0-3 days, with Tuesday most likely. This window may be adjusted if inflation rates change significantly. Based upon prior cycles of fountaining and deflation, episode 18 fountaining is likely to be less than 24 hours long.

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea is WATCH.