(BIVN) – The ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park remains paused, with the USGS Alert Level at WATCH. 

Scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory calculate the next episode could begin within 4 to 6 days. 

Although the previous episode (Episode 13) ended on the afternoon of Tuesday, March 11th, lava flows unrelated to the episode continue to spread out on the eastern side of the crater. 

USGS: “A USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory geologist uses a handheld laser rangefinder on the southwest rim of Kaluapele (Kīlauea summit caldera) to measure the height of the recently active cones within Halema‘uma‘u.” (USGS photo taken on March 12, 2025, by M. Patrick)

From the USGS HVO update posted on Thursday:

Summit Observations:

Lava flows and fountains stopped erupting from the vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater at 3:13 p.m. HST on March 11. Lava flows from episode 13 covered over 60% of the Halemaʻumaʻu crater floor. Lava flows unrelated to the episode 13 eruption continue to spread out on the down-dropped block on the eastern side of Halemaʻumaʻu. These appear to be fed from by older stored lava from beneath the crater floor. The vents continue to degas and glow at night, indicating magma remains at shallow levels in the vent.

Summit tilt continues in an inflationary direction at a steady rate. The Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter has recorded just over 4 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 13. Seismic tremor decreased significantly at the end of episode 13 but remains above background. 1 small earthquake was recorded in the summit region over the past 24 hours.

An SO2 emission rate of 1,200 t/d was measured in the afternoon on March 12, which is a typical rate for eruption pauses.

USGS webcam shows Kīlauea caldera at sunrise

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone with no significant earthquake activity in the past 24 hours. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below detection limit.

Analysis: 

The current eruption is marked by episodic fountaining not seen in any of the other Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions since 2020. Fountains and lava flows have erupted from two vents that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. The 13 fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week. Each fountaining episode has been accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate change from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes.

Analysis of inflationary tilt patterns prior to the onset of each fountaining episode allows a time window of probability for the onset of new episodes to be estimated. These are calculated using both minimum inflation necessary to start a new eruption and the rate of inflation. If current inflation rates at UWD continue, current estimates suggest that the most likely window of time for a new episode to begin is between Tuesday, March 18 and Thursday, March 20 within the next 5-7 days. This estimate may be revised in future updates as more data becomes available.