(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, and scientists say a new episode (Episode 10) is likely in the next 1 to 4 days. 

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at WATCH. 

Episode 9 of the Kīlauea eruption inside Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park paused at 8:43 a.m. HST on February 12, after over 22 hours of activity. High lava fountains from the north and south vents within Halemaʻumaʻu fed lava flows onto the crater floor. No significant changes have been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.

From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Sunday morning:

Summit Observations:

Episode 9 ended at 8:43 a.m. HST the morning of February 12, after 22.5 hours of lava fountaining at the north and south vents in the western part of Halemaʻumaʻu at the summit of Kīlauea. Episode 9 lava flows covered approximately 50-60% of Halemaʻuʻmaʻu floor. Last night, minimal incandescent areas remained visible on Halemaʻumaʻu floor as recently erupted lava continues to cool. The north and south vents continue to degas and glow was visible in both vents last night, indicating that magma remains at relatively shallow levels in the vents.

The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) switched from deflation to inflation at about the same time that episode 9 ended at 8:43 a.m. HST on February 12. UWD has recorded about 7 microradians of inflationary tilt since then. Seismic tremor remains elevated but decreased with the end of episode 9. No significant earthquakes were recorded in the summit region over the past 24 hours.

Wind conditions and the timing of episode 9 prevented accurate measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate. SO2 emission rates during episode 9 are estimated to have been 10,000 t/d or higher based on emissions measured during earlier episodes. During eruptive pauses, SO2 emission rates are lower and typically around 1,000 t/d.

Strands of volcanic glass known as Pele’s Hair have been reported on surfaces throughout the summit area of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park and surrounding communities.

USGS: “This reference map depicts the Kīlauea summit eruption within Halema‘uma‘u crater that began on December 23, 2024. As of this posting on February 7, the eruption has had eight episodes. However, most of the map data included here were collected during a Hawaiian Volcano Observatory helicopter overflight on February 3, prior to the eighth episode that began later the same day. For this reason, the provided statistics only reflect the first seven episodes of the eruption. No lava flows are currently active on the crater floor, but persistent glow from the eruptive vents indicates that lava remains close to the surface.”

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone with no significant earthquake activity in the past 24 hours. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the East Rift Zone remains below detection limit.

Analysis: 

The current eruption is marked by episodic fountaining not seen in any of the other Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions since 2020. Fountains and lava flows have erupted from two vents that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each previous fountaining episode lasted from a few hours to over a week and has been accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate change from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes.

Episode 9 lasted for 22 hours and 30 minutes. The rapid change from deflation to inflation at the same time the eruption paused on February 12 coupled with glow from the vents over the nights since episode 9 ended suggests another episode will take place. The rate of inflation since episode 9 ended suggests that a new episode is most likely to start in the next 1-4 days, between today, February 16, and Wednesday February 19, if the rate remains relatively consistent.