(BIVN) – Kīlauea is not erupting. The USGS Volcano Alert Level remains at ADVISORY. 

Scientists noted on Thursday that earthquake activity beneath the summit caldera has increased over the past 24 hours after a day of declines. Activity beneath the upper East Rift Zone has decreased.   

“Longer-term, gradual inflation of the summit and upper rift zones persists since the end of the June 3, 2024, eruption,” the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported. “Any substantial increases in seismicity and/or deformation could result in a new eruptive episode, but there are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time.”

From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory:

Summit and Upper Rift Zone Observations:  Over the past 24 hours, there were approximately 52 earthquakes detected beneath Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) and 5 earthquakes detected beneath the upper East Rift Zone, mostly at depths of 0–2 km (0.0–1.2 mi) beneath the ground surface. Counts increased beneath Kaluapele and decreased in the upper East Rift Zone compared to the previous day (during which there were 20 events detected beneath the summit and 30 events detected beneath the upper East Rift Zone). All earthquake counts are well below the counts recorded during the June 27–July 1 upper East Rift Zone swarm. All events were smaller than M2 except for M2.0, M2.1, M2.3, and M3.3 earthquakes in the summit region. Tiltmeters in Kīlauea summit region (instruments SDH, southwest of the summit, and UWE, northwest of the summit) show longer-term minor increases in inflationary ground deformation rates over the past day. Tiltmeter SDH has also shown very minor, short term tilt excursions (both deflationary and inflationary) over the last 24 hours. GPS instruments around the summit region continue to show longer-term, gradual inflation since the end of the June 3, 2024, eruption. The most recent measurement of the summit’s SO2 emission rate was approximately 61 tonnes per day on July 9, 2024.

Above Top: Number of earthquakes per day during the past week (blue bars). The red line is the cumulative moment (energy) release. Bottom: Depth of earthquakes during the past week in the area shown on the map above. Depth is reported relative to sea level, which is equal to a depth of zero on the above plot. On both figures, circle-size represents magnitude, and color indicates depth. (USGS graphs)

Middle and Lower Rift Zone Observations:  Rates of seismicity and ground deformation beneath the middle and lower East Rift Zone and lower Southwest Rift Zone remain low. Recent eruptive activity and ongoing unrest have been restricted to the summit and upper rift zone regions. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone—the site of 1983–2018 eruptive activity—remain below detection limits for SO2, indicating that SO2 emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.

USGS: “This map shows recent deformation at Kīlauea, over the timeframe of June 6 to July 8, 2024. Data was recorded by the Italian Space Agency’s (ASI) Cosmo-SkyMED satellite. Colored fringes denote areas of ground deformation, with more fringes indicating more deformation. Each color cycle represents 1.5 cm (0.6 in) of ground motion. The bullseye feature indicates inflation of the area southwest of Kaluapele over this time period. The northeast-southwest trending line-like feature reflects the intrusion (body of magma underground) that fed the June 3, 2024, eruption. Arrow in the upper left indicates satellite orbit direction (arrow) and look direction (bar).”

Analysis: Following the eruption on June 3, 2024, magma has been repressurizing the storage system beneath Halemaʻumaʻu and the south caldera region, activating earthquakes in the caldera south of Halemaʻumaʻu and in the upper East Rift Zone. At this time, it is not possible to say whether this activity will lead to an intrusion or eruption in the near future, or simply continue as seismic unrest at depth. Changes in the character and location of unrest can occur quickly, as can the potential for eruption, but there are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time.