(BIVN) – Kīlauea is not erupting and the USGS Alert Level for the Hawaiʻi island volcano remains at ADVISORY. 

Over the past day, an increase in earthquake counts and elevated rates of inflationary ground deformation were noted by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The slightly elevated behavior was observed in the summit and upper rift zones, following a two-day lull. 

“Any additional or renewed increase in seismicity and/or deformation could result in new eruptive episodes within or near the summit region,” scientists repeated.

From the USGS HVO on Tuesday:

Recent Eruption Site Observations:  Kīlauea erupted briefly on Monday, June 3, southwest of Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) within a closed area of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. Glow from fissure vents is no longer visible in webcam imagery. SO2 emissions from the eruption site have likely decreased since the most recent measurement and may be around 50-100 tonnes per day (t/d) (similar to background emission levels at the summit). Seismic activity remains low at the eruption site. 

This map shows deformation following the recent eruption at Kīlauea on June 3, 2024. It covers from June 6 to June 13, 2024, and is recorded by the Italian Space Agency’s (ASI) Cosmo-SkyMED satellite. Colored fringes denote areas of ground deformation, with more fringes indicating more deformation. Each color cycle represents 1.5 cm (0.6 in) of ground motion. The bullseye feature indicates inflation of the area southwest of Kaluapele over this time period. The northeast-southwest trending line-like feature reflects the intrusion (body of magma underground) that fed the recent eruption. Arrow in the upper left indicates satellite orbit direction (arrow) and look direction (bar). (USGS)

Summit and Upper Rift Zone Observations:  Rates of seismicity beneath the summit, upper East Rift Zone, and upper Southwest Rift Zone have returned to slightly elevated levels. Over 35 earthquakes occurred over the past 24 hours. Earthquakes were mostly located beneath the south caldera region and upper East Rift Zone, at depths of 1.5-3 km (1–1.8 miles), with magnitudes under M2.5. Ground deformation data at the summit shows resumed steady inflation. The Uēkahuna tiltmeter northwest of the summit recorded overall inflation of approximately 6 microradians over the past 24 hours. The Sand Hill tiltmeter southwest of the summit recorded approximately 3 microradians of inflation over the past 24 hours. The most recent summit SO2 emission rate measured was approximately 50 t/d on June 10, 2024; accordingly, total SO2 emissions from the summit and recent eruption site are likely less than 200 t/d.

Lower Rift Zone Observations:  Rates of seismicity and ground deformation beneath the middle and lower East Rift Zone and lower Southwest Rift Zone are low. Eruptive activity and unrest have been restricted to the summit and upper rift zone regions. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone remain below detection limits for SO2, indicating that SO2 emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.

Above Top: Number of earthquakes per day during the past week (blue bars). The red line is the cumulative moment (energy) release. Bottom: Depth of earthquakes during the past week in the area shown on the map above. Depth is reported relative to sea level, which is equal to a depth of zero on the above plot. On both figures, circle-size represents magnitude, and color indicates depth. (USGS graphs)

Analysis: Following the June 3 eruption, magma has been repressurizing the storage system beneath Halemaʻumaʻu and the south caldera region, activating earthquakes in the upper East Rift Zone and in the caldera south of Halemaʻumaʻu. At this time, it is not possible to say whether this increase in activity will lead to an intrusion or an eruption in the near future, or simply continue as seismic unrest at depth. Changes in the character and location of unrest can occur quickly, as can the potential for eruption, but there are no signs of imminent eruption at this time.