(BIVN) – It has been more or less a month since the official start of the 2019 hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean, and so far it has been quiet.

The could change this week, as a disturbance off Mexico could develop in the next week into the first tropical cyclone of the season.

Hurricane season officially began on May 15 in the Eastern Pacific, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific, where Hawaiʻi is located.

According to the NOAA National Weather Service National Hurricane Center in Miami:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

Forecasters say the formation chance through 48 hours is medium, about 40 percent. The formation chance through 5 days is high, or 70 percent.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced in May that there is a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year. “For the season as a whole, 5 to 8 tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane basin,” NOAA reported. “This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes.”

At the time, NOAA also reported that a weak El Niño matured in early 2019. The effects of El Niño tend to result in a greater tropical cyclone threat to Hawaiʻi.

The El Niño Advisory remains in effect, according to the latest El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued on June 13. “El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance),” the synopsis said.