Wednesday 5 pm updated Hilda track

• WARNINGS: The Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii Island has been discontinued.The High Surf Warning has been cancelled and a High Surf Advisory is now in effect. The Flash Flood Watch will begin tomorrow morning.
• STRENGTH: Hilda is a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
• LOCATION: Tropical Storm Hilda is 245 miles southeast of Hilo and is moving west at 3 mph.
• SIZE: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.
• HIGH SURF: The High Surf Warning has been cancelled and a High Surf Advisory is now in effect for east facing shores. Wave heights of 8 to 12 feet are possible along east facing shores.
• RAIN: A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect starting at 6 am tomorrow morning. Hilda could produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with possible maximum values now at 12 inches. The highest amounts are expected to occur along the east and southeast facing slopes.

National Weather Service 5 pm

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NORTHEAST OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOLIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS… ALBEIT SLOWLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB… AND 30 KT FROM JTWC. CIMSS ADT INDICATED 41 KT. FURTHERMORE… BUOY 51004 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE ADT ESTIMATE AND THE BUOY PEAK WIND IN 10 TO 12 FT SEAS… THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OVER A DAY… HILDA CONTINUES TO SURVIVE IN THE FACE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…38 KT ON THE CIMSS 0000 UTC ANALYSIS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HILDA BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY. THE FORECAST DROPS HILDA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY… THEN DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY SOONER.

HILDA APPEARS TO FINALLY BE MOVING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD THE WEST. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO… THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS TRACK IS NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED BEYOND 24 HOURS.

HILDA/S SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII… EXPECTED WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND FORECASTED WEAKENING HAS RESULTED IN THE DECISION TO DROP THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 17.2N 152.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.3N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.9N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.6N 158.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z…DISSIPATED