11 am Update – Hurricane Hilda

• LOCATION: Hurricane Hilda is 600 miles east southeast of Hilo and is moving west northwest at 10 mph. There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, however a High Surf Advisory will be put in place for east facing shores starting at 6 pm this evening. The National Weather Service says Hilda is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest and move slowly forward in the coming days.
• STRENGTH: Hilda is now a strong category two hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph. Hilda is forecast to continue weakening today.
• SIZE: Hilda has previously been called a tiny storm. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

National Weather Service at 11 am

SATELLITE FIXES FROM HFO…SAB AND JTWC WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE HILDA. I HAVE SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 95 KT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE HURRICANE SHOWS IT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EYE IS NO LONGER WELL-DEFINED. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO WEAK SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST… WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 KT. THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING WEST FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. HILDA WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING MORE SLOWLY AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK.

FOR CLARITY AND CONVENIENCE WE USUALLY WRITE SEPARATE PARAGRAPHS FOR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENTS… BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HILDA CANNOT BE CONSIDERED SEPARATELY. IF HILDA WERE TO REMAIN A STRONG AND DEEP SYSTEM… HER TRACK WOULD LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY STEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WOULD MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HILDA BECOMES… THE MORE ITS TRACK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE TRADE-WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WOULD GIVE HILDA A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING WEAKENING TREND AS HILDA ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWEST SHEAR NEAR 40 KT DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OR TUTT. THE MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HILDA TAKING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT WEAKENS. I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE LEFT… CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS… WHILE CONTINUING A STEADY WEAKENING.

U.S AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO BEGIN FLYING MISSIONS INTO HILDA THIS EVENING. THE DATA FROM THESE MISSIONS SHOULD HELP REFINE OUR FUTURE FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.0N 147.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.6N 148.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 16.5N 149.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 17.3N 150.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 18.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 18.8N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 19.2N 153.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH