(ABOVE IMAGE) A National Weather Service image shows the latest 5 day track for Tropical Storm Ana.

(ABOVE VIDEO) Video contains the first Hawaii County Civil Defense message concerning Tropical Storm Ana.

NEWS BRIEFS

• Tropical Storm Ana is currently 630 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. It is moving west at 9 mph. Ana is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest tonight or early Thursday and maintain this motion through Friday.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, 110 km/h, with higher gusts. Ana is forecast to gradually intensify and become a hurricane later today or tonight.
• Large swells produced by Ana are expected to arrive over the eastern end of the main Hawaiian islands starting late Thursday. These large swells will continue to spread across the island chain through the weekend. Surf produced by these swells may be potentially damaging along some shorelines starting on Friday. Civil Defense says surf heights of 25 to 40 feet are currently forecasted.

INSIGHTS

At 10 a.m. the Hawaii County Civil Defense agency issued its first audio alert message in regards to Tropical Storm Ana. The message relied on data from the 5 a.m. National Weather Service update.

PRIMARY SOURCES

The National Weather Service is currently tracking Tropical Storm Ana and will be providing further updates as conditions change. As of 5:00 am this morning, Tropical Storm Ana was located approximately 680 miles east southeast of Hilo and moving west at 9 miles per hour. Presently the system is showing sustained winds of 70 miles per hour with higher gusts. In addition to the high winds, high surf and storm surge may be expected as well as heavy rains and thunder showers. Although the threat level has not yet been raised we are asking Hawaii Island residents to monitor your local radio broadcasts for updates and to prepare for possible storm conditions which could begin to affect the Big Island by Friday. Residents in the shoreline communities of Punaluu in Kau and the Kalapana, Kapoho, and Pohoiki areas of Puna are advised to take precautions and to move to higher ground. Surf heights of 25 to 40 feet are currently forecasted for the southeast facing shores of Hawaii Island.

Additional updates will be broadcasted as information becomes available.Hawaii County Civil Defense on Oct. 15

Ana has been maintaining a persistent central dense overcast overnight and through the morning. Microwave data from 1435 and 1744 utc showed that the active deep convection was displaced south of the llcc which is indicative of shear impinging on the system. However… The latest visible and infrared images show an expanding and more symmetric outflow which suggests that the shear is easing and the system is becoming better organized. The latest subjective dvorak intensity estimates came in at 55 kt from phfo and jtwc… And 65 kt from sab. Based on a blend of these estimates… The initial intensity will be maintained at 60 kt. Considering the vigorous nature of the deep convection… Ana may be close to becoming a hurricane.

The initial movement is 270/8kt with a deep layer ridge north of the cyclone providing the westward steering current. In the next 12 to 24 hrs… The orientation of the ridge will shift and produce a northwestward steering flow which is expected to bring Ana toward the main hawaiian islands. The latest objective aids have become tightly clustered… Even beyond 72 hours and the consensus track has remained largely unchanged. Thus… The current track is consistent with the previous forecast package except for a very small increase in speed. The track takes the center of ana just south of the Big Island of Hawaii then northwest near Kauai and Oahu. The forward motion slows late friday and into saturday as the steering currents weaken due to the passage of a low pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands. The noaa gulfstream iv is scheduled to begin sampling the environment around ana later today. The data from these flights should help improve subsequent model guidance.

Despite the vertical shear currently affecting Ana… Intensity guidance continues to show an intensification of Ana… Though not quite as strong as earlier packages. Hwrf and gfdl are the most aggressive while ships indicates Ana will become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. With sufficiently warm ssts and oceanic heat content… The forecast package leans toward the hwrf solution and calls for Ana to become a hurricane later today or tonight. A peak intensity forecast of 80 kt is expected early Friday. This is consistent with the previous package and is above the latest intensity consensus. Ships calls for increasing vertical shear to start weakening Ana late Friday or Saturday.

Interests in the main hawaiian islands should continue to monitor the future progress of Ana. A hurricane watch may be required for portions of the island chain later today or tonight.National Weather Service discussion on Oct. 15 at 11 a.m. HST