(ABOVE IMAGE) A National Weather Service image shows the latest 5 day track for Tropical Storm Ana.

(ABOVE VIDEO) Audio of Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator Darryl Oliveira from an October 13 media conference call. Images from various NOAA / National Weather Service / USGS sources on October 13.

NEWS BRIEFS

• Tropical Storm Ana is 820 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and is moving west northwest at 8 miles per hour.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the National Weather Service expects Ana to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

INSIGHTS

The latest five day track has Ana arriving near Hawaii Island this weekend, and predicts the storm will be a hurricane at that time.

PRIMARY SOURCES

Latest satellite imagery indicates that Ana continues to become better organized… With visible imagery indicating overshooting cloud tops near the llcc. Latest dvorak satellite intensity estimates also indicate an intensification trend… With fix agencies ranging from 3.0/45 kt to 4.0/65 kt. The initial intensity splits the middle of the fixes… And is set at 55 kt.

The forward motion of Ana has increased slightly over the past several hours… And the current motion estimate is 295/07 kt. Ana is tracking generally westward under the influence of a deep layer ridge centered north of the system. Latest analyses depict strong southerly shear between Ana and the main Hawaiian Islands… Due to the gradient between a closed low aloft west of the islands and the ridge north of Ana. However… Global models remain steadfast in forecasting a continued westward motion for the low aloft. With the low retreating…The expectation is that the ridge north of the system will become slightly better established through Wednesday… Keeping the system on a general westward track. The ridge will slowly slide southeastward Thursday and Friday…With Ana then expected to move on an increasingly northwesterly track. Toward the end of the forecast period… A mid-latitude trough passing north of the system will weaken the steering currents… While also introducing a slightly less favorable shear profile. The interaction between Ana and the passing trough introduces increasing uncertainty to the track forecast at the longer ranges. The updated forecast is faster than the previous and shifted slightly to the left… Which nudges it toward the latest tvcn guidance.

The intensity forecast closely follows the previous and the trend presented by the icon consensus… Calling for Ana to become a hurricane by Wednesday… But peaking at a slightly higher intensity on days 2 and 3. Ships guidance continues to indicate a similar trend… With Ana gradually weakening on days 4 and 5 due to the aforementioned changing shear profile… The injection of slightly drier air… And marginally warm water temperatures along the forecast track.National Weather Service discussion on Oct. 14 at 11 a.m. HST