“Satellite images show that Flossie gradually intensified overnight… But that trend appears to have abated somewhat in the last hour or two… With the center estimated to be on the south side of the deep convection. A trmm pass at 0733z showed the development of an eye feature… And hints of that feature were apparent in earlier infrared geostationary satellite images. A 0630z ASCAT pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the north semicircle… But given the apparent improvement in organization overnight… And the tendency for ASCAT to underestimate wind speeds… The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is toward 275 degrees at 17 kt.”

“Track guidance continues to show a slight decrease in Flossie’s forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours… As it distances itself from the surface ridge far to the north-northeast… And begins to feel the effects of the mid-level ridge to the west. The track guidance is tightly clustered in the short term… With nearly all the models showing Flossie near the Big Island and Maui Monday morning… Passing south of Oahu Monday night. The latest track forecast is just a little north of the previous one… And lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. ”

“Although ssts warm slightly along Flossie’s projected path… Water vapor imagery shows Flossie embedded in an area of increasingly dry air aloft… Due to the subsidence associated with a nearly stationary ridge aloft just west of the main Hawaiian islands. As Flossie moves west… This ridge is expected to impart increasing north to northeasterly shear over the system…And intensity models continue to indicate a gradual weakening… But at a slower rate than earlier. The intensity forecast has thus been nudged upward through much of the forecast… And is close to the ships guidance and the intensity consensus.”

“Far eastern coastal waters of the Big Island will first feel the effects beginning very early Monday morning, then spreading to Maui County by late morning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Kauai channel, windward and leeward waters of Oahu. The areas around Oahu will start feeling the effects of Flossie late Monday afternoon and evening. Please see the following products on our website, weather.gov/hawaii, for the latest track and highlights. Public advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS header TCPCP1 and WMO header WTPA31. Tropical storm local statement under AWIPS header hlshfo and WMO header wthw80. Flossie is expected to begin weakening beginning later today, and continue on Monday as it pushes onto the eastern end of the state.

Flossie will bring potential for heavy rain, flooding, thunderstorms and strong winds to the islands. Now is the time to gather last minute water, food and supplies. Monitor NOAA weather radio and local news outlets for the latest official storm information.

As the remnant of Flossie moves west of the state Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high pressure from the far northeast will build back in. Fresh trade winds are expected through the remainder of the week into next weekend.”