“Convection has redeveloped near the center of Flossie… And cirrus outflow has expanded in the northern semicircle… Indicating that Flossie has become slightly better organized since the previous bulletin. The initial intensity has been nudged upward to 50 kt… Which is in line with the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity analyses. The initial motion estimate is toward 275 degrees at 17 kt…Which has been relatively steady over the past 12 hours.

Although SSTS warm somewhat along Flossie’s projected path… Water vapor imagery shows Flossie entering an area of increasingly dry air aloft… Associated with a nearly stationary ridge aloft just west of the main Hawaiian Islands. As Flossie moves west… This ridge is likely to impart increasing north to northeasterly shear over the system… And intensity models continue to indicate a gradual weakening of Flossie. The intensity forecast has been nudged upward through 48 hours… But is the same as the previous thereafter… With gradual weakening until dissipation occurs in 120 hours… Which is line with the intensity consensus.

Guidance continues to show a slight decrease in Flossie’s forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours…As it distances itself from the surface ridge far to the north-northeast…And begins to feel the effects of the mid-level ridge to the west. This is also expected to force Flossie toward due west…And nearly all the models are showing Flossie near the Big Island and Maui around Monday morning. The latest track forecast shows little significant change from the previous one… And requires the Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County and the Big Island to be upgraded to a warning at this time. With probabilities of tropical storm force winds increasing for Oahu… A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.”