(ABOVE IMAGE) The National Weather Service five day forecast track for Tropical Depression Two-c, which could be a hurricane if it arrives on Hawaii Island on Saturday, as weather models currently predict.

NEWS BRIEFS

• A tropical disturbance southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has become sufficiently organized to deem the system a tropical cyclone, says the National Weather Service. It will be named Ana if it becomes a Tropical Storm, as forecasted.
• The sudden storm appears to be headed towards Hawaii Island. The latest 5 day track places it over the Big Island this weekend as a hurricane.

INSIGHTS

Hawaii Island – in particular the Puna district – is still healing from Hurricane / Tropical Storm Iselle, which hit the Big Island on August 7th. As Hawaii County remains focused on a lava flow that threatens to change the way for life for thousands in the Puna district, the possibility of another hurricane is an unwelcome development.

PRIMARY SOURCES

Persistent showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance southeast of the main Hawaiian Islands have become sufficiently organized to deem the system a tropical cyclone. 1537z ssm/s and 1359z trmm overpasses detected curved bands that support initiating advisories… As do dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.0/30 kt from phfo and sab. Thus the second cyclone of the 2014 season has formed in the Central Pacific… Tropical Depression Two-c. If the system becomes a tropical storm… It would be named Ana.

Initial motion is 295/09 kt… With the cyclone being steered by a mid level ridge to the north. A westward-moving closed low aloft near the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move steadily west through the forecast period… Allowing the ridge to build north of the system over the next 48 hours. This is expected to keep the system on a general west-northwest track through day 3 while also resulting in a slowing of the forward motion. Toward the end of the forecast period… The ridge will slide eastward as a trough aloft passes by to the north… Resulting in a turn to the northwest and a slight increase in forward speed. The track forecast lies near the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope through day 3. Guidance spread increases toward the end of the period… Primarily due to differences in the strength of the passing trough and its impacts on the ridge. The official forecast closely follows the tvcn consensus at that time.

Intensity guidance indicates that a steady intensification rate can be expected… With shear light and water temperatures sufficiently warm along the forecast track. The official forecast follows suit… And is close to the ships/lgem guidance… Making the system a hurricane by day 2… And maintaining it as a hurricane through day 5.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system through the week. National Weather Service on Oct. 13